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Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Christopher J. Neely and Paul A. Weller Working Paper 2011-001B http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-001.pdf January 2011 Revised July 2011 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Research Division P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166 ______________________________________________________________________________________ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Prepared for Wiley’s Handbook of Exchange Rates Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Christopher J. Neely* Paul A. Weller July 24, 2011 Abstract: This article introduces the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its importance for questions of market efficiency. “Technicians” view their craft, the study of price patterns, as exploiting traders’ psychological regularities. The literature on technical analysis has established that simple technical trading rules on dollar exchange rates provided 15 years of positive, risk-adjusted returns during the 1970s and 80s before those returns were extinguished. More recently, more complex and less studied rules have produced more modest returns for a similar length of time. Conventional explanations that rely on risk adjustment and/or central bank intervention do not plausibly justify the observed excess returns from following simple technical trading rules. Psychological biases, however, could contribute to the profitability of these rules. We view the observed pattern of excess returns to technical trading rules as being consistent with an adaptive markets view of the world. Keywords: exchange rate, technical analysis, technical trading, intervention, efficient markets hypothesis, adaptive markets hypothesis
Technical analysis, also known as “charting,” has been a part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis. One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis—the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder. In this paper, we propose a systematic and automatic approach to technical pattern recognition using nonparametric kernel regression, and we apply this method to a large number of U.S. stocks from 1962 to 1996 to evaluate the effectiveness of technical analysis. By comparing the unconditional empirical distribution of daily stock returns to the conditional distribution—conditioned on specific technical indicators such as head-and-shoulders or double-bottoms—we find that over the 31-year sample period, several technical indicators do provide incremental information and may have some practical value. ONE OF THE GREATEST GULFS between academic finance and industry practice is the separation that exists between technical analysts and their academic critics. In contrast to fundamental analysis, which was quick to be adopted by the scholars of modern quantitative finance, technical analysis has been an orphan from the very start. It has been argued that the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis is not unlike the difference between astronomy and astrology. Among some circles, technical analysis is known as “voodoo finance.” And in his inf luential book A Random Walk down Wall Street, Burton Malkiel ~1996! concludes that “@u#nder scientific scrutiny, chart-reading must share a pedestal with alchemy.” However, several academic studies suggest that despite its jargon and methods, technical analysis may well be an effective means for extracting useful information from market prices. For example, in rejecting the Random Walk * MIT Sloan School of Management and Yale School of Management. Corresponding author: Andrew W. Lo ~firstname.lastname@example.org!. This research was partially supported by the MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, Merrill Lynch, and the National Science Foundation ~Grant SBR– 9709976!. We thank Ralph Acampora, Franklin Allen, Susan Berger, Mike Epstein, Narasimhan Jegadeesh, Ed Kao, Doug Sanzone, Jeff Simonoff, Tom Stoker, and seminar participants at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, NYU, and conference participants at the ColumbiaJAFEE conference, the 1999 Joint Statistical Meetings, RISK 99, the 1999 Annual Meeting of the Society for Computational Economics, and the 2000 Annual Meeting of the American Finance Association for valuable comments and discussion.
Excerpt from: Supplier Management Manual (Chapter 2) As at: 26.11.2009 Version 1.7.5 engl. Handbuch Lieferantenmanagement - extern/intern (vertraulich) - Version 1.7 / 1 2 Basic Requirements for Systems, Processes and Methods Contents Publication: Last Doc. Change: Last QMweb Change: Last Portal Change: external/internal 02.09.2009 20.12.2007 n. a. Basic Requirements for Systems, Processes and Methods 2 2.1 ISO TS 16949 2.2 VDA - Volumes issued by the German Association of the Automotive Industry 2.3 MBST - Mercedes-Benz Special Terms 2.4 Certificate Management 2.5 Electronic Data Interchange 2.6 Data Interchange via XML Interface in acc. to VDA 2.8 SIS - Standards Information System 2.9 Legal Text Online 3 Supplier Management Manual Version 1.7.5 MBC/Q Production Credits File and printed copies of this document are not subject to document change control. The valid version of this document is available from your portal administrator via the Daimler Supplier Portal (https://daimler.portal.covisint.com) 2 2 Basic Requirements for Systems, Processes and Methods Contents 1. Ensuring that organizational principles and objectives are met: 2. Ensuring that the MDS milestones are adhered to: 3. Ensuring that the MPS strategy is followed: 4. Ensuring that QM and vehiclespecific methods are employed: 5. Ensuring that communication is consistent with Extended Enterprise®: Supplier Management Manual Version 1.7.5 MBC/Q Publication: Last Doc. Change: Last QMweb Change: Last Portal Change: external/internal 02.09.2009 20.12.2007 n. a. LOI (= Letter of Intent – in exceptional cases only) Development and production contract Purchase conditions and MBST (Mercedes-Benz Special Terms) Standardized inquiry (including latest possible EMPB) Specifications document (component specifications) Standardized inquiry Drawings, CAD data Daimler-Benz delivery specifications, Mercedes-Benz standards Basic samples for interior materials Basic samples for paintwork Milestone plan in accordance with MDS Mercedes-Benz Special Terms Guideline for product realization, ISO TS 16949 Call-off details (delivery dates, quantities, packaging) Logistics Process Analysis (LPA) All applicable VDA volumes must be taken into account Daimler Process Audit SPICE according to ISO 15504 as per HIS (Manufacturer Initiative Software) Production process and product release as per MBST13 Global Supplier News Journal and Supplier Portal Forums and workshops with suppliers Data interchange via XML interface as per VDA File and printed copies of this document are not subject to document change control. The valid version of this document is available from your portal administrator via the Daimler Supplier Portal (https://daimler.portal.covisint.com)
2009-07-16T17:54:06+02:00 - Seite 1 Version: 126.96.36.199 2009-07-16T17:54:06+02:00 - Seite 2 Version: 188.8.131.52 204_AKB; 5; 23, en-US d2ureepe, Symbols Trademarks: RBabySmartTM is a trademark of Siemens Automotive Corp. RBluetooth® is a registered trademark of Bluetooth SIG Inc. RESP® is a registered trademark of Daimler. RHomeLink® is a registered trademark of Prince, a Johnson Controls Company. RLogic 7® is a registered trademark of Harman International Industries, Incorporated. RMicrosoft® is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S.A. and other countries. RSIRIUS and related marks are trademarks of SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. RWindows media® is a registered trademark of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S.A. and other countries. The following symbols are found in this Operator’s Manual: G Warning! Warning notices draw your attention to hazards that may endanger your health or life, or the health or life of others. ! Highlights hazards that may result in damage to your vehicle. i Helpful hints or further information you may find useful. X X Y page This symbol points to instructions for you to follow. A number of these symbols appearing in succession indicates a multiple-step procedure. This symbol tells you where to look for further information on a topic. YY This continuation symbol marks a warning or procedure which is continued on the next page. Display Text in displays, such as the control system, are printed in the type shown here. 204_AKB; 5; 23, en-US d2ureepe, 2009-07-16T17:54:06+02:00 - Seite 1 Version: 184.108.40.206 Our company and staff congratulate you on the purchase of your new Mercedes-Benz. Your selection of our product is a demonstration of your trust in our company name. Furthermore, it exemplifies your desire to own an automobile that will be as easy as possible to operate and will provide years of service. Your Mercedes-Benz represents the efforts of many skilled engineers and craftsmen. To help assure your driving pleasure, and also the safety of you and your passengers, we ask you to make a small investment of time: RPlease read this manual carefully, then return it to your vehicle where it will be handy for your reference. RPlease follow the recommendations contained in this manual. They are designed to acquaint you with the operation of your Mercedes-Benz. RPlease pay attention to the warnings and cautions contained in this manual. They are designed to help improve the safety of the vehicle operator and occupants. We extend our best wishes for many miles of safe, pleasurable driving. Mercedes-Benz USA, LLC A Daimler Company ...
Symbols Registered trademarks: RBabySmart™ is a registered trademark of the Siemens Automotive Corp. RBluetooth® is a registered trademark of the Bluetooth SIG Inc. RESP® is a registered trademark of Daimler AG. RHomeLink® is a registered trademark of Prince, a Johnson Controls Company. RLogic 7® is a registered trademark of Harman International Industries, Incorporated. RMicrosoft® a registered trademark of the Microsoft Corporation in the USA and in other countries. RSIRIUS and related brands are registered trademarks of SIRIUS XM Radio Inc. RWindows Media® is a registered trademark of the Microsoft Corporation in the USA and in other countries. In this Operator's Manual you will find the following symbols: G Warning Warning notices draw your attention to hazards that endanger your health or life, or the health or life of others. ! Warning notices draw your attention to hazards that could cause damage to your vehicle. i Practical tips or other information that could be helpful to you. X X Y page This symbol indicates instructions that you must follow. A number of these symbols appearing in succession indicates instructions with several steps. This symbol tells you where to look for further information on a topic. 2010-05-20T09:17:30+02:00 - Seite 2 Version: 220.127.116.11 YY This symbol marks a warning or procedure which is continued on the next page. Display Text in the multifunction display/ COMAND display. BA 204 USA, CA Edition A 2011; 1; 5, en-US hereepe 2010-05-20T09:17:30+02:00 - Seite 1 Version: 18.104.22.168 Welcome to the world of Mercedes-Benz Before you drive off, please familiarize yourself with your vehicle and read this manual, especially the safety and warning notices. This will help you to obtain the maximum pleasure from your vehicle and to avoid endangering yourself and others. The equipment or product designation of your vehicle may vary depending on: Rmodel Rorder Rcountry specification Ravailability Mercedes-Benz is constantly updating its vehicles to the state of the art. Mercedes-Benz therefore reserves the right to introduce changes in the following areas: Rdesign Requipment Rtechnical features You cannot therefore base any claims on the data, illustrations or descriptions contained in this manual. The following are integral parts of the vehicle: ROperator's Manual Instructions1 RService Booklet RSupplements relating to vehicle equipment Keep these documents in the vehicle at all times. When you sell the vehicle, always pass the documents on to the new owner. The technical documentation team at Daimler AG wishes you safe and pleasant motoring. Mercedes-Benz USA, LLC Mercedes-Benz Canada, Inc. A Daimler Company
Digital SLR cameras are quite simple. I can hear the cries of outrage right now, but this first statement is true. Let's compare operating a digital SLR to using your television set. These days, TVs come with a wealth of options: memory scan, picture in picture, color correction, sound options. Do you have to use all of these features to watch TV? Not at all. In fact, you only need to know 3 things to watch TV: 1. How to turn it on 2. How to change channels 3. How to increase and decrease the volume Here's the thing: with a digital SLR camera, you ALSO only need to know 3 things: 1. How to turn it on 2. How to change the aperture 3. How to change the shutter speed All text and photos copyright © 2008 The Digital SLR Guide This document may not be reproduced without permission. That's it! OK, you're right. You don't even have to know that much, since many people use their digital SLRs without ever changing aperture or shutter speed. It's easy to use a digital SLR camera in AUTO or PROGRAM mode but this defeats the purpose of owning an SLR camera. One of the benefits of an SLR over a compact point-and-shoot is that you have control over every photo you take. YOU make the decision about how every photo is going to look NOT the camera. Why is this important? Because your digital SLR is - in the end - just a small computer. While it excels at processing millions of colored dots of information, it makes pretty poor judgment calls about the artistic qualities of your photos. Once you wrestle control of aperture and shutter speed away from the camera and make them your own, you'll see a remarkable improvement in all of the photos you take. Before You Begin Before you get too deep into this lesson, I'd like you to do something for me. Go out and take a few shots with your camera. The subject doesn't have to be anything special - just find something (or someone) you enjoy photographing. You also don't have to go crazy, just 10 or 20 photos will do. I'll tell you what this is all about when you're done with the e-course. Definitions Here comes the tough part of this week's digital SLR course - the definitions. While I try to keep these as simple as possible, it's inevitable that some of the finer points won't be immediately understood. Don't despair. These definitions will become clear over time - the most important thing is that you practice a lot and see for yourself what effect each camera setting has on your photos. We'll take care of the practice part in the Exercises, but those come later.
dentaltown.com May 2006 Human beings are incredibly visual. Nearly half the human brain is dedicated to interpreting visual information. “Seeing is believing” is a metaphor that has stood the test of time as a testament to the persuasive power of visual communication. Most dentists understand trust is a vital part of providing quality care to our patients; a foundation for trust is connecting with your patients through unambiguous and honest communication. Digital-clinical photography is clear and understandable communication that can help dentists better connect with their patients. Using digital photography during your new patient examination will support your clinical findings discussion. You don’t need special proprietary software to make digital photography an integral part of your daily practice of dentistry. Windows XP, more than previous PC operating system platforms, has been optimized for digital photography. The ability to efficiently import images from your digital camera, store and view those images is easily accomplished without special software. Current digital SLR (single-lens reflex) Macro Photography cameras are now an affordable adjunctive tool for your clinical diagnosis. The information gained through the use of clinical photography may prove to be as important for diagnosis and communication as study models and dental radiography. Oral imaging is not a completely new concept. Since the 1980s, intraoral videocams and close-up Polaroid photos have been used to reveal the condition of teeth during a patient’s dental visit. The intraoral video systems are generally awkward to maneuver and the close-up nature of these images is often confusing to the patient. Moreover, many patients have difficulty understanding the orientation of the viewed image in the mouth and usually don’t want you to produce further images that will no doubt show other problem sites. The digital SLR camera with macro-lens is a powerful alternative to intraoral videocams.
We are submitting a final report for a proof of concept for a solar powered refrigeration compressor and thermodynamic system. The report contains material on two major portions of our efforts: thermodynamic modeling and compressor construction. For both of these areas, we have included a discussion of concepts considered and reasoning for major design decisions. Our recommendations for future work are also addressed in this document. Please contact us at UofISPR@gmail.com with questions, comments, or concerns. We have enjoyed the challenges the project has given us and hope to see the project continuing in future semesters. Thank you for your time and the opportunity to work on this project. Sincerely, Solar Powered Refrigeration Team The goal of this project was to provide a proof of concept for a solar powered refrigeration compressor designed to operate off of a pressure difference created by solar thermal energy. This included validating that the thermodynamic cycle is feasible and fabricating of a prototype, driven by compressed air, to acquire data on the design’s mechanical functionality. With this system, an adequate cooling effect is produced with minimal electrical energy input, allowing small standalone units to operate almost entirely off solar thermal energy. This type of vapor compression refrigeration (VCR) is vastly different than what is on the market today. Current solar refrigeration technology involves ammonia evaporation, which is highly inefficient and bulky in comparison. Typical evaporation refrigeration devices are in the range of thirty to forty percent efficient . Needless to say, it’s time for a change. This new VCR cycle could serve many markets, reducing the use of non-renewable energy sources and moving towards a sustainable future. Markets such as produce transportation, biomedical refrigeration, commercial and residential air conditioning, and even the familiar drink cooler could benefit from this technology. To turn this idea into a marketable, economically feasible, mechanical device would forever change the way we use our energy.
Popular culture provides materials out of which people create their identities. Since it plays such a prominent role in current society, particularly with youth, it is crucial for clinicians to engage with popular culture as a therapeutic tool. This article espouses some of the key tenets of the interdisciplinary field of cultural studies, a useful methodology in analyzing popular culture and the mass media. Paying attention to how therapy clients make meaning of media texts can be a powerful therapeutic tool. A case example with a gay youth, Steven—who inserts himself into the text of the Harry Potter stories—illustrates a cultural studies-informed therapeutic approach that draws both upon cultural studies methods and a strong theoretical partner, queer theory. By using a queer cultural studies viewpoint, Steven uncovered some of the hidden “queer” readings and messages in the Harry Potter books that helped him find support for his own sexual identity. In contemporary society, popular media culture is the dominant culture. The culture industries (organizations that produce and distribute art, entertainment, and/ or information) produce images and messages that provide the very materials out of which people constitute their identities (Barker, 2000). Media images supply the models out of which people construct their sense of gender, race, class, nationality, sexuality, and ethnicity. Media stories also provide the symbols, myths, and resources which help constitute a common culture for the majority of people in contemporary global, capitalist societies. Media culture helps induce individuals to identify with dominant discourses, values, institutions, and practices (Miller, 2001).
Joanne Kathleen Rowling's series of novels about Harry Potter has attracted the attention of numerous literary critics. This paper questions the problems of multiple readings from the viewpoint of feminist literary theory. We can observe considerable differences in the approach of various literary critics to Rowling's series and the opinions of these critics are equally varied. They claim that these are sexist novels, feminist novels, novels for boys, novels in which girls can find role-models and novels in which the author seeks to assert herself through the discourse of fictional text. It is concluded that the novels analyzed can be read from multiple perspectives and that Rowling succeeds in making the reader aware of the problems of male-female relations by positioning the characters on opposite sides with regard to emotional relations, relations towards different people and the family and towards society in general, as well as through convincing and impressionable characterization. Key Words: Harry Potter, feminist literary theory and criticism, multiple readings, relationships between sexes