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Introduction – What’ Exciting and Interesting About FX? s • Possibly world’ oldest financial market s • Definitely world’ largest financial market s • Like other financial markets, foreign exchange has been subject to tremendous innovation and change over the last 20 years Ø New products Ø New market participants Ø New trading mechanisms and trading technology All of above pose competitive threats (and opportunities) for market participants • Foreign exchange plays a central role in the global economy Ø As a medium of exchange to facilitate the flow of global trade in goods and services Ø As a medium of exchange to facilitate the purchase and sale of foreign securities Ø As a medium to “ re-denominate”and manage the currency risk of stock asset and liability positions Foreign Exchange Basics – Contracts, Actors and Activities Contracts Spot Contracts • An exchange of two currencies for “ immediate delivery” ⇒ exchange of bank balances in 2 business days (1 day N. American currencies) • A binding commitment • Quoting conventions Direct terms, also called American terms: US$/foreign currency Indirect terms, also called European terms: Foreign Currency/US$ Foreign Exchange Swaps • A simultaneous borrowing and lending of short-term bank balances in two currencies For example, bank A borrows $10 million from bank B for 1-month, and bank B borrows $10 million worth of £ from bank A for 1-month • Quoting convention So-called ...
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© 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone 202-473-1000 Internet www.worldbank.org All rights reserved. 1 2 3 4 08 07 06 05 A copublication of The World Bank and the International Finance Corporation. This volume is a product of the staff of the World Bank Group. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978750-4470; Internet www.copyright.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax 202-522-2422; e-mail firstname.lastname@example.org.
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Support for Resistance: Technical Analysis and Intraday Exchange Rates • Among the technical trading signals supplied to customers by foreign exchange trading firms are “support” and “resistance” levels. These levels indicate points at which an exchange rate trend is likely to be interrupted or reversed. • A rigorous test of the levels specified by six trading firms during the 1996-98 period reveals that these signals were quite successful in predicting intraday trend interruptions. • Although all six firms were able to identify turning points in exchange rate trends, some firms performed markedly better than others. As a group, the firms predicted turning points in the dollar-yen and dollar-pound exchange rates more accurately than turning points in the dollar-mark exchange rate. • In addition, the predictive power of the support and resistance levels appeared to last at least five business days after they were first communicated to customers. Carol Osler is a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. E arly in the morning of each business day, the major foreign exchange trading firms send their customers lists of technical trading signals for that day. Timely technical signals are also supplied by major real-time information providers. These signals, which are based primarily on prior price and volume movements, are widely used by active foreign exchange market participants for speculation and for timing their nonspeculative currency transactions. In fact, 25 to 30 percent of foreign exchange traders base most of their trades on technical trading signals (Cheung and Chinn 1999; Cheung and Wong 1999). More broadly, technical analysis is used as either a primary or secondary source of trading information by more than 90 percent of foreign exchange market participants in London (Allen and Taylor 1992) and Hong Kong (Lui and Mole 1998).
Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Christopher J. Neely and Paul A. Weller Working Paper 2011-001B http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/2011/2011-001.pdf January 2011 Revised July 2011 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS Research Division P.O. Box 442 St. Louis, MO 63166 ______________________________________________________________________________________ The views expressed are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the Federal Reserve System, or the Board of Governors. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers are preliminary materials circulated to stimulate discussion and critical comment. References in publications to Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers (other than an acknowledgment that the writer has had access to unpublished material) should be cleared with the author or authors. Prepared for Wiley’s Handbook of Exchange Rates Technical Analysis in the Foreign Exchange Market Christopher J. Neely* Paul A. Weller July 24, 2011 Abstract: This article introduces the subject of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market, with emphasis on its importance for questions of market efficiency. “Technicians” view their craft, the study of price patterns, as exploiting traders’ psychological regularities. The literature on technical analysis has established that simple technical trading rules on dollar exchange rates provided 15 years of positive, risk-adjusted returns during the 1970s and 80s before those returns were extinguished. More recently, more complex and less studied rules have produced more modest returns for a similar length of time. Conventional explanations that rely on risk adjustment and/or central bank intervention do not plausibly justify the observed excess returns from following simple technical trading rules. Psychological biases, however, could contribute to the profitability of these rules. We view the observed pattern of excess returns to technical trading rules as being consistent with an adaptive markets view of the world. Keywords: exchange rate, technical analysis, technical trading, intervention, efficient markets hypothesis, adaptive markets hypothesis